Elevated risk — the predicted emission cliff is actively materializing with 74% hashrate decline from peak, while the Toccata hard fork adds new mechanism complexity requiring full reassessment. B- grade subject to downgrade on full rescan.
Risk Breakdown
Top Risks
74% hashrate decline from peak — the emission cliff has arrived (95.8% of 29B KAS mined as of June 2026), causing block rewards to drop from ~65 KAS to ~2.60 KAS per block. Hashrate fell from 1,470 Ph/s in February 2026 to ~388 Ph/s, reducing 51% attack costs by approximately 74%. Multiple major mining pools (Nanopool, F2pool) have exited Kaspa mining entirely
Toccata hard fork (June 30, 2026) introduces new L1 covenant scripting (KIP-17) and ZK Groth16 precompile (KIP-16) — while both are well-studied primitives, their interaction with GHOSTDAG's parallel block ordering at 10 BPS is untested in production. New attack surfaces include covenant script complexity bugs and ZK verifier edge cases
Security budget long-term viability — with transaction fees at ~$68K/day equivalent and no smart contract DeFi generating fee revenue, sustained mining profitability depends on KAS price appreciation. The UTXO-only design pre-Toccata has generated minimal organic fee pressure
Mining centralization post-emission — top 2 pools (HumPool 27%, Kryptex 13%) now control ~40% of hashrate. As unprofitable miners exit, concentration among the remaining large ASIC operators increases the probability of coordinated censorship or reorganization attempts
Frequently Asked Questions
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