Moderate risk — 10+ years of clean core operation and best-in-class institutional partnerships for payments, balanced by SDF's concentrated token holdings and the emerging Soroban smart contract attack surface.
Risk Breakdown
Top Risks
The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) holds approximately 23 billion XLM of the 50 billion total supply (46%), creating significant single-entity concentration. While SDF is a non-profit and distributions fund ecosystem development, this level of concentration gives one entity outsized influence over supply dynamics and ecosystem direction.
Soroban smart contracts (launched February 2024) are relatively new, with only 2 years of mainnet production. While they expand Stellar's capability beyond payments, the WASM-based contract platform adds new attack surface that has less battle-testing than Stellar's core payment functionality.
A critical exploit in 2019 allowed an attacker to mint over 2 billion XLM without detection. The vulnerability was patched and the network has operated cleanly since, but it demonstrated that even well-reviewed consensus implementations can harbor critical bugs.
The SCP (Stellar Consensus Protocol) federated trust model relies on validators choosing their own quorum slices. If tier-1 validator diversity narrows or trust graph topology shifts, the network's fault tolerance could degrade below the current 2-organization tolerance (expanding to 4 in 2025).
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